Number of observations

1118

Success rate

Distribution across treatments

Last update

July 30 2019

Success rate by treatment

Success rate by week of intake

Assignment probabilities

Observations by treatment and week of intake

Assignment shares

Success rate by stratum

Distribution across strata

Total number of observations

	cash	information	psychological	control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp	19	16	29	15
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp	38	35	36	39
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp	1	3	2	2
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp	3	1	6	6
Syr,F,< HS,never emp	26	27	36	36
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp	14	12	9	18
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp	1	2	3	1
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp	2	0	0	2
Jor,M,< HS,never emp	18	23	23	33
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp	26	61	42	34
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp	9	6	3	1
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp	15	11	15	14
Jor,F,< HS,never emp	35	45	42	34
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp	15	33	20	19
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp	16	10	14	10
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp	9	6	17	19

Total number of successes

	cash	information	psychological	control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp	1	0	1	1
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp	3	2	3	4
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp	0	0	0	0
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp	0	0	1	1
Syr,F,< HS,never emp	2	0	0	0
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp	0	0	1	1
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp	1	0	0	0
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp	0	0	0	0
Jor,M,< HS,never emp	0	0	0	3
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp	1	6	7	5
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp	1	3	1	0
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp	1	0	0	2
Jor,F,< HS,never emp	1	3	1	0
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp	3	3	3	2
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp	1	1	1	0
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp	0	0	3	2

Success rates

	cash	information	psychological	control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp	0.05	0.00	0.03	0.07
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp	0.08	0.06	0.08	0.10
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp	0.00	0.00	0.17	0.17
Syr,F,< HS,never emp	0.08	0.00	0.00	0.00
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp	0.00	0.00	0.11	0.06
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp	0.00	NaN	NaN	0.00
Jor,M,< HS,never emp	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.09
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp	0.04	0.10	0.17	0.15
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp	0.11	0.50	0.33	0.00
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.14
Jor,F,< HS,never emp	0.03	0.07	0.02	0.00
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp	0.20	0.09	0.15	0.11
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp	0.06	0.10	0.07	0.00
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp	0.00	0.00	0.18	0.11

Posterior expectation of success probabilities

	cash	information	psychological	control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp	0.07	0.04	0.06	0.08
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp	0.07	0.06	0.08	0.10
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp	0.07	0.06	0.08	0.08
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp	0.07	0.07	0.10	0.10
Syr,F,< HS,never emp	0.07	0.03	0.05	0.04
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp	0.05	0.04	0.09	0.07
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp	0.10	0.07	0.08	0.08
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp	0.07	0.08	0.09	0.08
Jor,M,< HS,never emp	0.05	0.03	0.05	0.09
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp	0.06	0.09	0.12	0.12
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp	0.08	0.20	0.11	0.08
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp	0.07	0.04	0.06	0.11
Jor,F,< HS,never emp	0.05	0.07	0.05	0.04
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp	0.10	0.08	0.10	0.09
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp	0.07	0.08	0.08	0.06
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp	0.06	0.05	0.11	0.09

Posterior probability for each treatment to be optimal, given stratum

stratum	cash	information	psychological	control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp	0.26	0.09	0.24	0.41
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp	0.18	0.13	0.25	0.44
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp	0.22	0.19	0.28	0.30
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp	0.13	0.19	0.30	0.38
Syr,F,< HS,never emp	0.59	0.07	0.22	0.12
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp	0.14	0.10	0.45	0.30
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp	0.34	0.18	0.21	0.27
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp	0.19	0.25	0.29	0.27
Jor,M,< HS,never emp	0.15	0.06	0.17	0.62
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp	0.03	0.16	0.40	0.42
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp	0.06	0.67	0.16	0.11
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp	0.20	0.09	0.13	0.58
Jor,F,< HS,never emp	0.22	0.42	0.24	0.11
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp	0.29	0.18	0.29	0.24
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp	0.20	0.35	0.29	0.16
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp	0.09	0.11	0.47	0.33

Current assignment probabilities

stratum	cash	information	psychological	control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp	0.26	0.12	0.24	0.38
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp	0.20	0.15	0.25	0.40
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp	0.23	0.21	0.28	0.29
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp	0.15	0.20	0.29	0.35
Syr,F,< HS,never emp	0.52	0.11	0.22	0.15
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp	0.16	0.13	0.41	0.29
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp	0.32	0.19	0.22	0.26
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp	0.20	0.25	0.28	0.27
Jor,M,< HS,never emp	0.17	0.09	0.19	0.54
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp	0.07	0.18	0.37	0.38
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp	0.10	0.59	0.18	0.14
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp	0.21	0.12	0.15	0.52
Jor,F,< HS,never emp	0.23	0.39	0.25	0.14
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp	0.28	0.19	0.28	0.24
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp	0.21	0.33	0.28	0.18
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp	0.12	0.14	0.42	0.32

90% credible sets for success probabilities

stratum	cash	information	psychological	control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp	(0.02, 0.13)	(0.00, 0.10)	(0.02, 0.11)	(0.02, 0.16)
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp	(0.03, 0.13)	(0.02, 0.13)	(0.04, 0.14)	(0.04, 0.16)
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp	(0.01, 0.15)	(0.00, 0.18)	(0.01, 0.17)	(0.01, 0.20)
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp	(0.01, 0.14)	(0.00, 0.21)	(0.03, 0.21)	(0.03, 0.23)
Syr,F,< HS,never emp	(0.03, 0.13)	(0.00, 0.08)	(0.00, 0.09)	(0.00, 0.09)
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp	(0.01, 0.11)	(0.00, 0.12)	(0.03, 0.18)	(0.02, 0.15)
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp	(0.03, 0.22)	(0.00, 0.20)	(0.01, 0.16)	(0.01, 0.21)
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp	(0.01, 0.15)	(0.00, 0.24)	(0.01, 0.20)	(0.01, 0.19)
Jor,M,< HS,never emp	(0.01, 0.10)	(0.00, 0.09)	(0.00, 0.10)	(0.04, 0.16)
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp	(0.02, 0.11)	(0.04, 0.15)	(0.06, 0.21)	(0.06, 0.21)
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp	(0.03, 0.16)	(0.06, 0.43)	(0.04, 0.26)	(0.01, 0.21)
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp	(0.02, 0.14)	(0.00, 0.12)	(0.01, 0.11)	(0.04, 0.21)
Jor,F,< HS,never emp	(0.02, 0.10)	(0.02, 0.13)	(0.01, 0.10)	(0.00, 0.09)
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp	(0.04, 0.20)	(0.03, 0.16)	(0.05, 0.20)	(0.03, 0.18)
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp	(0.02, 0.13)	(0.02, 0.20)	(0.02, 0.15)	(0.01, 0.14)
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp	(0.01, 0.12)	(0.00, 0.15)	(0.05, 0.22)	(0.03, 0.18)

90% credible sets, plotted

95% credible sets for population weighted average potential outcomes

95% credible sets, Syrians only

95% credible sets, Jordanians only

95% credible sets for population weighted treatment contrasts against control

95% credible sets, Syrians only

95% credible sets, Jordanians only

Point estimates

Comparison of the average potential outcomes for the actually chosen treatment assignment to the average that would have obtained under random assignment, \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1 &= \tfrac{1}{N} \sum_{i,t} \left ( \hat E\left [\theta^{D_{it} X_{it}} \right ] - \tfrac{1}{4} \sum_d \hat E\left [\theta^{d X_{it}}\right ] \right )\\ &=0.001 \end{align*}\]

Comparison of the optimal targeted policy, and the optimal non-targeted policy, to the default of (treatment \(0\)), \[\begin{align*} \Delta_2 &= \sum_x \left ( \max_d \hat E\left [\theta^{dx} \right ] - \hat E\left [\theta^{0x} \right ] \right ) p^x\\ &= 0.014, \\ \Delta_3 &= \max_d \sum_x \left (\hat E\left [\theta^{dx} \right ] - \hat E\left [\theta^{0x} \right ] \right ) p^x \\ &= 0. \end{align*}\]

Credible sets

95% credible sets: \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1: &\quad (0.00, 0.00)\\ \Delta_2: &\quad (-0.01, 0.04)\\ \Delta_3: &\quad (0.00, 0.00) \end{align*}\]

90% credible sets: \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1: &\quad (0.00, 0.00)\\ \Delta_2: &\quad (-0.01, 0.03)\\ \Delta_3: &\quad (0.00, 0.00) \end{align*}\]